Predictability and Ensemble Prediction

The primary focus of this Special Project is research on atmospheric predictability. Work concentrates on (i) mesoscale and small-scale predictability, (ii) ensemble prediction, and (iii) data assimilation methodology. Through the potential of rapid growth of errors in the assimilated initial state of atmospheric models, a strong connection exists between atmospheric predictability and data assimilation research, providing also a strong connection within the above topics. Three efforts have been pursued in particular so far, related to the (i) quasigeostrophic (QG) model, (ii) investigation of key analysis errors (KAEs), and (iii) evaluation of the correctness of a dynamical model core.

Leitung: Ehrendorfer, Martin

MitarbeiterInnen: Gohm, Alexander; Schüller, Felix; Koch, Roland

Finanziert durch: Special Project des European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Laufzeit: 2004 - 2007

Weiterführende Informationen: www.ecmwf.int