University of Innsbruck

LightningPredict

 

LightningPredict

 

Numerical Weather Prediction systems lack skill in predicting convective events one day in advance. This project aims in improving the skill of prediction systems by top-notch statistical post-processing methods for the region of the Eastern Alps.
Major scientific questions to be answer are: On what spatial and temporal scales is convection predictible? Does predictability increase by taking benefit from pre-dominant flow patterns in the mountainious Terrain?
For this purpose lightning serves as a proxy of convective events. The lightning data is received by state-of-the-art Lightning Detection Network established and maintained within the ALDIS project. The post-processing methods include both classic analog approaches and non-linear flexible regression methods.

Project

Project Leader: Georg MAYR

Members:
Simon Thorsten

External Members:
Co-PI: Achim Zeileis (Department of Statistics, UIBK)
Industrial Partner: Gerhardt Diendorfer, Wolfgang Schulz (ALDIS)

Funding Agencies:
The Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG 846620

Project Duration:
01/04/2015 to 31/08/2018

Publications

2018

Dietz, S. J.P. KneringerG. J. MayrA. ZeileisLow visibility forecasts for different flight planning horizons using tree-based boosting modelshttps://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2018-11.pdf 

2017

Simon, T.N. UmlaufA. ZeileisG. J. MayrW. SchulzG. DiendorferSpatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrainhttp://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/305/2017/nhess-17-305-2017.pdf 



Nach oben scrollen