Numerical Weather Prediction systems lack skill in predicting convective events one day in advance. This project aims in improving the skill of prediction systems by top-notch statistical post-processing methods for the region of the Eastern Alps.
Major scientific questions to be answer are: On what spatial and temporal scales is convection predictible? Does predictability increase by taking benefit from pre-dominant flow patterns in the mountainious Terrain?
For this purpose lightning serves as a proxy of convective events. The lightning data is received by state-of-the-art Lightning Detection Network established and maintained within the ALDIS project. The post-processing methods include both classic analog approaches and non-linear flexible regression methods.


Project Leader: Georg MAYR

Simon Thorsten

External Members:
Co-PI: Achim Zeileis (Department of Statistics, UIBK)
Industrial Partner: Gerhardt Diendorfer, Wolfgang Schulz (ALDIS)

Funding Agencies:
The Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG 846620

Project Duration:
01/04/2015 to 31/08/2018



Dietz, S. J.P. KneringerG. J. MayrA. ZeileisLow visibility forecasts for different flight planning horizons using tree-based boosting models 


Simon, T.N. UmlaufA. ZeileisG. J. MayrW. SchulzG. DiendorferSpatio-temporal modelling of lightning climatologies for complex terrain 

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