WindFX – University of Innsbruck

WindFX

Forecasting the wind power distribution for wind parks (WindFX)

Forecasting the wind power distribution for wind parks (WindFX)

Methods to forecast electricity production from wind farms in Austria for forecast horizons of 6 hours to 10 days are compared and evaluated for their potential operational installation. State-of-the-art methods documented in the literatureand new methods will be implemented. They use best-guess and ensemble predictions ofa numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and an archive of historical wind farm andNWP data spanning several years. Probabilistic methods will maximize the information content of the forecast.

Project

Project Leader:
Mayr Georg

Members:
Messner Jakob
Stauffer Reto

Funding Agencies:
Austrian Science Fund (FWF): L615-N10

Project Duration:
01.10.2009 - 31.08.2013

Publications

2016

Messner, J. W. ;, G. J. Mayr, and A. Zeileis, 2016: Heteroscedastic Censored and Truncated Regression with crch. The R Journal, 2073-4859.

Messner, J. W. ;, G. J. Mayr, and A. Zeileis, 2016: Non-homogeneous boosting for predictor selection in ensemble post-processing. Working Papers in Economics and Statistics - University of Innsbruck, 2016-04.

Stauffer, R., J. W. ; Messner, N. ; Umlauf, and A. Zeileis, 2016: Ensemble Post-Processing of Daily Precipitation Sums over Complex Terrain Using Censored High-Resolution Standardized Anomalies. 2016-21.

Stauffer, R., J. W. ; Messner, G. J. Mayr, N. ; Umlauf, and A. Zeileis, 2016: Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Climatology over Complex Terrain Using a Censored Additive Regression Model. Working Papers in Economics and Statistics - University of Innsbruck, 2016-07.

2014

Messner, J. W. ;, A. Zeileis, J. Broecker, and G. J. Mayr, 2014: Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression. Wind Energy, 17, 1753-1766, doi:10.1002/we.1666. http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/we.1666.

Messner, J. W. ;, G. J. Mayr, A. Zeileis, and D. S. Wilks, 2014: Heteroscedastic Extended Logistic Regression for Postprocessing of Ensemble Guidance. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 448 - 456, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1.

Messner, J. W. ;, G. J. Mayr, D. S. Wilks, and A. Zeileis, 2014: Extending Extended Logistic Regression: Extended vs. Separate vs. Ordered vs. Censored. Monthly Weather Review, 140515130920004, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00355.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00355.1.

2013

Gisinger, S., G. J. Mayr, J. W. ; Messner, and R. Stauffer, 2013: Brief communication "Spatial and temporal variation of wind power at hub height over Europe". Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 305 - 310, doi:10.5194/npg-20-305-2013. http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/20/305/2013/npg-20-305-2013.pdf.

2012

Drechsel, S., G. J. Mayr, J. W. ; Messner, and R. Stauffer, 2012: Wind Speeds at Heights Crucial for Wind Energy: Measurements and Verification of Forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51, 1602 - 1617, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0247.1.